Gold’s Pause Looks Like Opportunity, Say Top Banks

GGold futures dipped for two consecutive days, sliding to roughly $3,350 /oz after June CPI surprised at 2.7 % year‑over‑year. Yet research desks at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and UBS call the pullback a “gift” for long‑term buyers. They cite three pillars:

1. Negative real yields remain in place. Even after the CPI print, inflation‑adjusted 3‑month Treasury rates sit near –1 %, historically a sweet‑spot for bullion demand (Petroni).

2. Trade‑war risk is back. President Trump’s proposed 30 % tariffs on EU and Mexican goods could dent global growth and weaken the dollar—classic fuel for safe‑haven flows (Hoffman).

3. Technical support is firm. Monday’s 0.13 % decline merely ended a three‑day win streak; prices still hover above the 50‑day moving average (~$3,300 /oz), preserving the up‑trend (Maltais).

   
   

Bank targets: UBS sees gold testing $3,600 /oz before year‑end, while Goldman flags scope for even higher prints if trade tensions escalate.

Investor playbook

• Layer in on weakness. Add in tranches near $3,300–$3,350 /oz.

• Blend exposure. Pair physical ETFs with royalty/streaming stocks for upside torque.

• Set prudent stops. Reassess if closes slip decisively below the 50‑day average.

  
  

Bottom line: short‑term noise from data releases is masking a broader bull market. With real yields negative, inflation sticky, and tariff headlines multiplying, “buy‑the‑dip” remains the consensus call among Wall Street’s biggest commodity desks.

Sources:

Hoffman, Ernest. “Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, UBS All Recommend Buying Gold after Latest Tariffs.” Kitco News, 15 July 2025, www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-07-15/morgan-stanley-goldman-sachs-ubs-all-recommend-buying-gold-after-latest.

Maltais, Kirk. “Gold Breaks a 3‑Day Win Streak.” The Wall Street Journal, 14 July 2025.

Petroni, Giulia. “Gold Retreats After U.S. Inflation Picks Up in June.” The Wall Street Journal, 15 July 2025.