India's Gold Market in Flux: Soaring Prices, Dwindling Consumer Demand, and Surging Central Bank Reserves

Gold prices have escalated to new highs, with international and domestic rates breaching the $2,300/oz mark, which has impacted demand and investment patterns. The sharp rise in gold prices has curtailed jewelry buying but has encouraged investments in tangible gold assets such as bars and coins. While gold prices in India remain lower than international rates, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been actively increasing its gold reserves, which have now reached a record level. At the same time, Indian gold ETFs have seen a slowdown in inflows.

Ahead, consumer demand may be affected by fewer weddings and elections, while the occasion of Akshaya Tritiya may offer some positive demand if prices stabilize. The domestic gold market persists at a discount even with narrowing differences, reflecting subdued jewelry demand and a shift to recycling due to higher prices. The RBI's gold holdings have increased notably in 2024, exceeding the past year's purchases, while gold imports have declined sharply in March, likely a response to elevated prices and increased recycling activities. Overall, while jewelry demand faces headwinds, the conditions appear to set the stage for heightened investment demand in gold.

Source:

Kavita Chacko 2024, 'India’s gold market update: unprecedented gold price rises, suppressed consumer demand and rising official gold reserves', Nasdaq , April 25, 2024